U.S. economy: Consumer confidence, house prices slide

Thursday, June 26, 2008
Brought to you by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

The Conference Board reported that its confidence index fell from 57.2 in May to 50.4 in June thanks to the housing downturn, higher unemployment and the rising cost of food and fuel. The last time the index was this low was in February 1992, when the economy was beginning to recover from the 1990-91 economic downturn.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index fell by 15.3 percent in April from the previous April, continuing March's 14.4 percent year-over-year decline. However, eight of the 20 cities included in the index experienced month-over-month increases in prices. That shows cities "are beginning to sort themselves into the bad and not-so-bad," said economics professor and index co-founder Karl Case. "It's not like the whole market is collapsing."

California cities included in the index continued to experience price declines: In Los Angeles, the index fell 2.2 percent from March to April and 32.1 percent year over year. San Diego was down 2.6 percent for the month and 22.4 percent compared with April 2007, and San Francisco declined 2.2 percent in April and was 22.1 percent below last April's index.
To read the full story, please click here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aX6aDvhPpltY&refer=home

U.S. home slump harder to reverse than usual - Harvard

• Homebuyers remain on the sidelines as they face the highest mortgage rates in nine months and stricter lending criteria. The Federal Reserve?s efforts to keep interest rates low with the hope of stimulating buyer activity has largely fallen on deaf ears as potential homebuyers watch prices continue to slide in many areas of the nation courtesy of a large inventory of foreclosed properties for sale.
• Director Nicolas Retsinas observed that housing markets "historically recover only after the economy has entered a recession and a combination of falling mortgage interest rates and house prices have improved housing affordability. It will take longer to rebound given the unusually high levels of foreclosures and constrained credit markets. The slump in housing markets has not yet run its full course."
• The report concludes: "...if the economy slips into a recession or job losses keep racking up, household growth and homeownership demand could fall even more."

To read the full story, please click here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2347133320080623?sp=true

California unemployment hits 6.8%

• California's unemployment rate trails four other states: Michigan, Rhode Island, Alaska and Mississippi. Some 1.26 million Californians were unemployed in May, up 115,000 from April and 300,000 higher than in May 2007. The state posted a net loss of 10,900 jobs in May, primarily in construction. However, there were net gains in jobs in education and health services, natural resources and mining, information, leisure, and hospitality.
• The state's employment situation could worsen later this year under the weight of state and local government budget cuts and a threatened actor's strike.
• Economists say an employment recovery may be as long as a year off. That's when the construction sector is expected to benefit from billions of dollars in public infrastructure projects approved by California voters.

To read the full story, please click here:
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-fi-caljobs21-2008jun21,0,5760427.story

Fannie, Freddie Fail to Relieve Housing by Shunning Jumbo Loans

• Jumbo loans of more than $417,000 accounted for about one-third of the mortgage market last year and represented a fifth of all mortgage applications in May, sources say. Since March, however, Fannie Mae has packaged only $24 million in jumbo loans into securities while Freddie Mac has packaged about $220 million. Meanwhile, the two companies invested more than $32.4 billion to buy their own securities, according to regulatory filings.
• The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® (NAR) had projected the two companies would buy $150 billion in jumbo loans this year. UBS AG now predicts that total may be less than $74 billion. Freddie Mac has said it would buy between $10 billion and $15 billion in jumbo loans this year.
• The two companies own or guarantee almost half of the $12 trillion in U.S. residential mortgage debt. They experienced record losses totaling $11.8 billion over the last three quarters as mortgage defaults climbed to 30-year highs.

To read the full story, please click here:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a57eFJtEHSHI&refer=us

New report had optimistic prospects

Sunday, June 29, 2008 @ 2:23:00 PM
By Alexis McGee, Co-Founder and President of ForeclosureS.com is both architect and teacher of their exclusive investor learning programs and author of The ForeclosureS.com Guide books (Wiley 2007, 2008).
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A new report from Harvard just came out "The State of the Nations Housing 2008" that I found very interesting. Let me share the highlights with you here. Starting with the good news -- drastic production cuts and deep price discounts in 2005-2007 helped shrink the inventory of unsold new homes from a mid-2006 peak of more than 570,000 to less than 500,000 in early 2008. But the number of homes entering foreclosure nearly doubled to 1.3 million last year, and vacant homes for sale rose 46 percent over two years, to 2.12 million.

This report is more optimistic about medium- to long-term prospects. It estimates that unless there's a serious, prolonged economic decline or a marked cutback in immigration, the nation will gain 14.4 million new households between 2010 and 2020, compared with 12.6 million between 1995 and 2005.

"Until the number of vacant for-sale units on the market falls enough to bring vacancy rates back down, house prices will remain under pressure," the report says. "Working off the oversupply will require some combination of the following: housing starts fall even further; prices decline enough to bring out new bargain-seeking buyers; interest rates drop enough to improve affordability; job growth improves; consumer confidence returns; and mortgage credit again becomes more widely available."

"At some point demand will bounce back," Retsinas said in a press release announcing the release of the report. "Historically, housing markets recover only after the economy has entered a recession and a combination of falling mortgage interest rates and house prices have improved housing affordability."

If the economy slips into a severe recession, the prolonged contraction could drive down the sustainable level of housing demand by slowing the loss of older units, forcing more households to double up, and reducing sales of second homes, the report said. But in the case of a mild downturn, which most economists expect, the fundamentals of demand are likely to drive a strong rebound in housing once prices bottom out and the economy begins to recover.

The boom-bust housing cycle has been reflected in the home-ownership rate. From 1994 to 2004, the home-ownership rate surged by five percentage points, peaking at 69 percent. Since then, home-ownership rates have fallen back for most groups, including a nearly two-point drop among black households and a 1.4-point drop among young households. The number of renter households increased by more than 2 million from 2004 to 2007, lowering the national home-ownership rate to 68.1 percent.

Once the oversupply of housing is worked off and home prices start to recover, the use of automated underwriting tools, a return to more traditional mortgage products, and the strength of underlying demand should put the number of homeowners back on the rise, the report said.

Although the short-term prospects for a recovery remain uncertain, in the long run the downturn is unlikely to slow down the creation of new households. The report projected that minority household growth among 35- to 64-year-olds should remain strong in 2010-2020, while the number of white middle-aged households will begin to decline after 2010 as baby boomers reach retirement age. People living alone are expected to account for 36 percent of household growth between 2010 and 2020, and 75 percent of the 5.3 million projected increase in single-person households will be among those 65 and older.

This is all really very helpful information -- if you know how to use it to buy low and sell for profits in today market. That is why I spend time on this and more economic and housing data every month in my FREE Webinar and Conference Call for new foreclosure buyers "Make Honest and Ethical Foreclosure Profits NOW" on July 16th at 6pm Pacific. Register Early as we always fill up quickly! MORE HERE.

The Housing Crisis Is Over

By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUXMay 6, 2008; The Wall Street Journal Page A23

The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.

How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.

Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.

Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what's going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.

The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much. Read Full Story

Reverse Mortgages and Their Tax Breaks for Seniors

Many seniors find themselves in the same boat; they have an expensive home that has increased in value substantially, but they are struggling when it comes to day-to-day cash flow. Yet, they that if the sell the home, they will have to turn a significant amount of their profits over to the tax man. A regular home equity loan, or second mortgage, will only help the cash flow problem temporarily; after the loan amount is spent, then they will be faced with two mortgage payments and even less cash in the bank. If this sounds like your circumstances, then you should know there is another option out there that can help you pay for your retirement while avoiding costly taxes. A reverse mortgage has saved many seniors from retirement financial ruin.

First, let's look at what a reverse mortgage is. Read Full Story

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Commercial Market Follows Residential Footsteps

Posted by Editor View profile

There is a rise in commercial real estate being defaulted on and returned to lenders just as we have seen in the residential markets. The defaults are caused by property values falling below the amount owed on the property. See article » http://www.smartbrief.com

2 charged on Wall Street in mortgage meltdown

By TOM HAYS, Associated Press Writer Thu Jun 19, 7:13 PM ET
Yahoo News

NEW YORK - Two former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers were hauled into jail Thursday and charged with lying to investors about the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, perhaps signaling the start of a wave of prosecutions arising from the housing meltdown.

Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin were accused of encouraging investors to stay in their hedge funds, heavily exposed to subprime mortgages, even as they knew the credit market was in serious trouble.

They were indicted on conspiracy and fraud counts, the first criminal charges to hit Wall Street in the housing market meltdown.

The eventual implosion of their two hedge funds cost investors $1.8 billion and started the domino effect that led the demise of Bear Stearns itself, which barely avoided bankruptcy in a rescue buyout by JP Morgan Chase & Co. Click Here to Read Full Story

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THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE

Last Week in Review


“VERY NICE. IT’S A LITTLE GREASY…BUT VERY NICE. CRUMBLE SOME CRACKERS INTO IT SHELL, THAT WILL HELP TO ABSORB THE GREASE…” Peter Falk’s line from the 1979 classic movie “The In-Laws” is good advice about soup…but doesn’t help us much when it comes to absorbing the high price of oil, a greasy topic that continues to permeate financial headlines.

And last week was no exception, with oil prices continuing to march ever higher, despite an announcement early last week by OPEC member Saudi Arabia that they will increase oil production in the near future. They are concerned that the high price of oil will lead to lower demand and a turn toward alternative energy sources. And Friday’s news didn’t help, with a strike at a Chevron plant in war-torn Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producing nation. Additionally, Israel conducted a military operation for preparedness in case of a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear plants – which all served to push oil prices higher still. High oil prices are inflationary – so if the march higher in oil prices continues, both the Stock and Bond markets will suffer…and even crumbled crackers won’t help sop up the mess.

But Bonds did manage to find some improvement last week, helping home loan rates get better by about .125%. Negative economic news, including soft housing numbers, weakness from the manufacturing sector and more write-downs announced by financial giant Citigroup all played a hand – causing money to flow out of Stocks and over into Bonds, which helped prices improve.
WANT TO HELP YOUR CAR’S MAINTENANCE BUDGET IMPROVE? YOU MIGHT BE SURPRISED TO LEARN HOW MUCH YOU CAN SAVE…READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW!

Forecast for the Week

The coming week is chock full of economic reports that will likely have a big influence on the financial markets. We start off on Tuesday with a report on Consumer Confidence, and also the beginning of Fed meetings which will culminate in a Rate Decision and Policy Statement on Wednesday afternoon at 2:15pm ET. It is widely believed that the Fed will keep the Fed Funds Rate at 2%...but what will be most interesting is the wording of their carefully crafted Policy Statement. If it gives hints of their intent to hike rates in the near future to help fight inflation, it could actually be good news for Bonds and home loan rates.

A look at sales numbers in the new and existing housing markets will come Wednesday and Thursday, and Friday will wrap up the week with a bang as the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, the Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) data will be released. Since this will be following the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday – will the Fed look smart if they’ve held rates steady, or perhaps come under criticism if the inflation numbers are super-heated? Could be a greasy few days for the Fed, so stay tuned.

Remember that when Bond pricing moves higher, home loan rates move lower – and then take a look at the chart below. You can see how in recent days, Bonds have moved higher, but are now battling an overhead “ceiling” of technical resistance. If Bonds and home loan rates are to improve in the near future, it will take some very Bond-friendly news to help crash through the ceiling that has stopped progress in its tracks for the time being.

The Mortgage Market View...

TIME FOR A CHANGE…OR NOT?
The rising cost of crude oil has everyone talking about gas prices at the pump… but what about the actual oil in your engine? Are you spending too much on oil by changing it too often?
Most of us probably think a car’s oil needs to be changed every 3,000 miles. But that’s an old mechanics tale these days. Did you know that many car manuals now actually recommend changing the oil every 5,000, 7,500 or even 10,000 miles? That means you may be changing your oil twice or even three times as often as you need to! In fact, a recent study in California indicated that 73 percent of Californians change their oil more frequently than recommended by the manufacturers.

So how often should you change your oil?

The fact is, oil changes should be determined by what, how, and where you drive. If you have a newer car with little or no engine wear, you can probably go 7,500 miles between oil changes. And even if you have a slightly older car, but drive under ideal conditions such as predominantly highway, you can go a similar distance before changing.

Of course, many of us actually don’t drive under “ideal” conditions…if you make many short trips, endure lots of stop-and-go traffic, drive on gravel or dusty roads – then you might need to change your oil more frequently. So how do you know – and take advantage of saving money by only changing oil when it’s really needed?

Technology to the rescue

There are a few ways you can actually eliminate the guesswork. If you have a newer car, it may have a built-in sensor that estimates oil life based on engine running time, miles driven, outside temperature, coolant temperature and other operating conditions. When the indicator light comes on, it’s time to change the oil. It’s that simple.

Another idea is to purchase an oil monitoring sensor, such as the IntelliStick. These sensors are used in place of your car’s original dipstick and provide you with real-time, accurate information about the true condition of your oil. Better still, these sensors often have a transponder built into them so you can quickly and easily check the condition of your oil at any time using a cell phone, PDA or computer with Bluetooth connectivity…now that’s really going high tech.

Bottom line – dollars spent on oil changes add up fast. Especially with the increasing price of oil, it pays to be smart, check the manufacturer’s recommendations…and not let too-frequent oil changes cost you!

Ernest Tepman
President
The OCD Group Inc.
Los Angeles: 800-963-4623
San Diego: 877-863-4623
E-Mail: marketupdate@theocdgroup.com