Where to be during an earthquake? - MUST READ

Posted by: Igor Korosec - Real Estate Consultant & Foreclosure Therapist - www.BestHollywoodHomes.com

Remember that stuff about hiding under a table or standing in a doorway?? Well, this guy has a completely reverse opinion. This is very interesting, different from what we were all taught.

Boy! Is this ever an eye opener. Directly opposite of what we've been taught over the years! I can remember in school being told to, 'duck and cover' or stand in a doorway during an earthquake. This guy's findings is absolutely amazing. I hope we all remember his survival method if we are ever in an earthquake!! !

Please read this and pass the info along to your family members; it could save their lives someday!

EXTRACT FROM DOUG COPP'S ARTICLE ON THE: 'TRIANGLE OF LIFE'

My name is Doug Copp. I am the Rescue Chief and Disaster Manager of the American Rescue Team International (ARTI), the world's most experienced rescue team. The information in this article will save lives in an earthquake.

I have crawled inside 875 collapsed buildings, worked with rescue teams from 60 countries, founded rescue teams in several countries, and I am a member of many rescue teams from many countries.

I was the United Nations expert in Disaster Mitigation for two years. I have worked at every major disaster in the world since 1985, except for simultaneous disasters.

The first building I ever crawled inside of was a school in Mexico City during the 1985 earthquake. Every child was under its desk. Every child was crushed to the thickness of their bones.. They could have survived by lying down next to their desks in the aisles. It was obscene, unnecessary and I wondered why the children were not in the aisles. I didn't at the time know that the children were told to hide under something.

Simply stated, when buildings collapse, the weight of the ceilings falling upon the objects or furniture inside crushes these objects, leaving a space or void next to them. This space is what I call the 'triangle of life'. The larger the object, the stronger, the less it will compact. The less the object compacts, the larger the void, the greater the probability that the person who is using this void for safety will not be injured. The next time you watch collapsed buildings, on television, count the 'triangles' you see formed. They are everywhere. It is the most common shape, you will see, in a collapsed building..

TIPS FOR EARTHQUAKE SAFETY

1) Most everyone who simply 'ducks and covers' WHEN BUILDINGS COLLAPSE are crushed to death. People who get under objects, like desks or cars, are crushed.

2) Cats, dogs and babies often naturally curl up in the fetal position. You should too in an earthquake. It is a natural safety/survival instinct. You can survive in a smaller void. Get next to an object, next to a sofa, next to a large bulky object that will compress slightly but leave a void next to it.

3) Wooden buildings are the safest type of construction to be in during an earthquake. Wood is flexible and moves with the force of the earthquake. If the wooden building does collapse, large survival voids are created. Also, the wooden building has less concentrated, crushing weight. Brick buildings will break into individual bricks. Bricks will cause many injuries but less squashed bodies than concrete slabs.

4) If you are in bed during the night and an earthquake occurs, simply roll off the bed. A safe void will exist around the bed. Hotels can achieve a much greater survival rate in earthquakes, simply by posting a sign on The back of the door of every room telling occupants to lie down on the floor, next to the bottom of the bed during an earthquake.

5) If an earthquake happens and you cannot easily escape by getting out the door or window, then lie down and curl up in the fetal position next to a sofa, or large chair.

6) Most everyone who gets under a doorway when buildings collapse is killed. How? If you stand under a doorway and the doorjamb falls forward or backward you will be crushed by the ceiling above. If the door jam falls sideways you will be cut in half by the doorway. In either case, you will be killed!

7) Never go to the stairs. The stairs have a different 'moment of frequency' (they swing separately from the main part of the building). The stairs and remainder of the building continuously bump into each other until structural failure of the stairs takes place. The people who get on stairs before they fail are chopped up by the stair treads - horribly mutilated. Even if the building doesn't collapse, stay away from the stairs. The stairs are a likely part of the building to be damaged. Even if the stairs are not collapsed by the earthquake, they may collapse later when overloaded by fleeing people. They should always be checked for safety, even when the rest of the building is not damaged.

8) Get Near the Outer Walls Of Buildings Or Outside Of Them If Possible - It is much better to be near the outside of the building rather than the interior. The farther inside you are from the outside perimeter of the building the greater the probability that your escape route will be blocked.

9) People inside of their vehicles are crushed when the road above falls in an earthquake and crushes their vehicles; which is exactly what happened with the slabs between the decks of the Nimitz Freeway. The victims of the San Francisco earthquake all stayed inside of their vehicles. They were all killed. They could have easily survived by getting out and sitting or lying next to their vehicles. Everyone killed would have survived if they had been able to get out of their cars and sit or lie next to them. All the crushed cars had voids 3 feet high next to them, except for the cars that had columns fall directly across them.

10) I discovered, while crawling inside of collapsed newspaper offices and other offices with a lot of paper, that paper does not compact. Large voids are found surrounding stacks of paper.

Spread the word and save someone's life. Post this to your company notice board or on break room refrigerator, email it to friends and family TODAY. We never know what will happen tomorrow. The Entire world is experiencing natural calamities so be prepared!

'We are but angels with one wing, it takes two to fly'

In 1996 we made a film, which proved my survival methodology to be correct. The Turkish Federal Government, City of Istanbul , University of Istanbul Case Productions and ARTI cooperated to film this practical, scientific test. We collapsed a school and a home with 20 mannequins inside. Ten mannequins did 'duck and cover,' and ten mannequins I used in my 'triangle of life' survival method. After the simulated earthquake collapse we crawled through the rubble and entered the building to film and document the results. The film, in which I practiced my survival techniques under directly observable, scientific conditions , relevant to building collapse, showed there would have been zero percent survival for those doing duck and cover.

There would likely have been 100 percent survivability for people using my method of the 'triangle of life.' This film has been seen by millions of viewers on television in Turkey and the rest of Europe , and it was seen in the USA , Canada and Latin America on the TV program Real TV.

Mortgage Review For the week of May 19, 2008 --- Vol. 6, Issue 21

Last Week in Review


"It isn't hard to be good from time to time... What's tough is being good every day." Willie Mays. This past week saw both good and bad economic reports being released, which in turn set the stage for another volatile week in the Bond market. And because good economic news is typically bad news for Bonds and home loan rates, a better than expected Retail Sales Report started a rough ride for Bonds early on. Adding further upward pressure on home loan rates were some inflationary concerns expressed by Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker and Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto...and inflation is the arch enemy of Bonds because it erodes the buying power of the Bond's fixed payment returns to investors.

And speaking of inflation, the highly anticipated Consumer Price Index hit the wires on Wednesday. This read on consumer inflation was tamer than expected for April. Bond prices reversed course on the news and continued to improve amidst an extravaganza of economic reports, which were mostly all friendly to Bonds and home loan rates.

On Friday, the rally for Bonds continued, as Bond prices recovered all of their losses from earlier in the week. Helping fuel the rally was the worst University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index in 26 years. Remember that bad economic news is good news for Bonds. And the negative sentiment is certainly a reflection of the higher food prices, spike in fuel costs, soft housing market and tightening credit conditions that all are weighing on consumers.

When the volatile, crazy week was over, Bonds and home loan rates took in the good news with the bad news and ended the week unchanged from where they began.

BAD ECONOMIC NEWS CAN BE GOOD FOR BONDS, BUT BECOMING THE VICTIM OF IDENTITY THEFT IS JUST BAD NEWS. IN THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW, WE EXPLORE SOME IMPORTANT TIPS ON KEEPING YOUR IDENTITY SAFE.

Forecast for the Week


Several reports are scheduled to hit the wires this week, with the potential to make for more good or bad days in the Bond Market. A big market mover may come Wednesday at 2:00pm ET, when Ben Bernanke and the Fed release the Minutes from their last meeting on April 30th. These minutes often give us greater insight as to what Bernanke and the Fed may be thinking about inflation and the state of the economy.

Remember when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower...and vice versa. Despite some declines in the early part of the week, Bonds were able to rally back as you can see in the chart below. I'll be watching closely to see if Bonds can remain above the layer of resistance at the 50 and 100-Day Moving Averages.


Don't Become an Identity Theft Victim...

According to recent statistics released by the U.S. Department of Justice, about 1.6 million households experience theft of existing accounts other than a credit card (such as a banking account), and 1.1 million households discover misuse of personal information (such as their social security number) annually. In addition, a recent poll revealed that "sixteen percent of adults say they have had their credit or debit card used by someone they don't know without their permission" and that "substantial numbers" of people have taken specific steps to help prevent identity theft from happening to them.

Here are some important tips for keeping your information safe and sound:

• Give it to me in writing. While many of us have limited our exposure to telemarketing calls by utilizing the Do-Not-Call registry, charities are exempt from the Do-Not-Call rules. If you receive a phone call from any charity, ask the caller to send you information in the mail instead of giving out your credit card information over the phone. If you get any resistance, just hang up. If someone isn't willing to give you the chance to review some information, they could be interested in more than earning a commission.
• Just the facts. We often give unnecessary information like our date of birth and income level when we're filling out things like warranty cards for new products we've bought or supermarket club cards. Share only what's really necessary in every situation.
  Navigating the Net. Never post your address or your full date of birth on any social networking sites because both are pieces of information needed to steal your identity. In addition, if you utilize internet job sites, never give a potential employer your Social Security number until they are ready to hire you. Also, thoroughly investigate companies before you submit your resume and check the privacy policies of any online job boards to make sure they won't sell your information.
• The world of paper. Even though the Internet has added a whole new dimension to identity theft, there are still important steps to take when it comes to paper items. First, never keep your Social Security number in your wallet, glove compartment, and other easy-to-access places. Also, never have it printed on your checks or use it as your password. Second, when you are ready to get rid of old documents that contain important information, shred them. And last, if you have to mail something that contains sensitive information, drop the letter in a secure mailbox instead of a mailbox that anyone can open (like the kind at the end of many people's driveways).

The bottom line is this: When it comes to your personal information, share it on a need-to-know basis only!

Ernest Tepman President

The OCD Group Inc.

Los Angeles: 800-963-4623

E-Mail: marketupdate@theocdgroup.com

Mortgage Market Guide, LLC is the copyright owner or licensee of the content and/or information in this email, unless otherwise indicated. Mortgage Market Guide, LLC does not grant to you a license to any content, features or materials in this email. You may not distribute, download, or save a copy of any of the content or screens except as otherwise provided in our Terms and Conditions of Membership, for any purpose.

SoCal home sales jump in April but still lag year-ago period

Southern California homebuyers stepped off the sidelines in April, snatching up foreclosures and homes priced under $500,000 at a rate that was 22 percent higher than in March but down 19 percent from April 2007 and the lowest level since 1995, according to DataQuick Information Services.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS
The median home price for the six-county region was $385,000, unchanged from March but down 24 percent from an April 2007 peak of $505,000. April marked the first time in eight months that the median price did not decline.

Sales were strongest in areas hit hardest by foreclosures: Riverside County (where sales increased month to month for the first time in two years), Lancaster, Chula Vista, Anaheim, Lake Forest and Victorville experienced the strongest rebounds. Two-thirds of homes sold during the month in Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, San Bernardino, Riverside and San Diego counties were priced under $500,000. About 38 percent of the homes sold were in foreclosure at some point during the previous year, up only 2 percent from March but sharply higher than the 5 percent reported a year ago. In Riverside County, 53 percent of sales involved troubled properties.

The credit crunch, potential for a recession, and uncertainty over when foreclosures will peak caused DataQuick analysts to remain cautious. Lack of financing for high-value homes continues to be an issue and could forestall a recovery if the trend persists. In April, only 15 percent of Southern California home loans were above $417,000, down sharply from the same period a year ago.

To read the full story, please click here:
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h_DkmV9N0qyf2vfd5bqwsVnBh0JgD90OUO9G0

Legislation to help homeowners avoid foreclosure

The U.S. Senate said it has agreed on legislation to help homeowners avoid foreclosure by creating an affordable housing fund that will enable Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to offer about $500 billion in foreclosure rescue funding in the program’s first year. Observers expressed optimism that the Bush administration will support the effort because it does not involve direct funding by taxpayers. The Senate proposal would tighten regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and create a new regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, which would be empowered to take action in the event the two quasi-government companies experience future liquidity problems.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS
Earlier this month, the House approved a similar bill. Under both plans, lenders would be allowed to limit their foreclosure losses by reducing the principal balance of loans to homeowners at risk of default and foreclosure. The primary beneficiaries would be homeowners with certain kinds of high-cost adjustable rate mortgages, who would be allowed to refinance to a more stable fixed-rate mortgage insured by the Federal Housing Administration.

Under the House bill, it is estimated that as many as 500,000 mortgages may be refinanced over the next five years at a cost to taxpayers of $2.7 billion. The Senate version, which would help the same number of borrowers, shortens the plan to three years and reduces the cost to about $500 million, with costs to come from a new Affordable Housing Fund that would collect about half a cent on every dollar in mortgages purchased in the secondary market by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The bill also would set a new Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac conforming loan limit of approximately $550,000 in high-cost markets, up from the current $417,000 limit. The limit has been temporarily increased to $729,250 in the most expensive markets as part of February’s economic stimulus package.

To read the full story, please click here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/20/business/20housing.html?_r=1&th&emc=th&oref=slogin

HUD Approves Borrower Paid Counseling For Reverse Mortgages

May 16th, 2008 Published in News, Reverse Mortgage

A few reverse mortgage related headlines from the week:
The incredible shrinking nest egg (USAToday)
Could a reverse mortgage save your parents lifestyle? (TriCities.com)
Look before slamming it into reverse (ChicagoTribune)
Woman given 10 days to leave home of 40 years (KVAL)

Today the Senior Lending Network kicks off their Senior Independent Living Month which will run from May 15 through June 15. All mortgage originators affiliated with the Senior Lending Network are joining forces in a series of events to promote social responsibility and ethical treatment of seniors and discuss the positive benefits of reverse mortgages.

As part of Senior Independent Living Month, the Senior Lending Network and the National Association of Home Builders are joining forces with Rebuilding Together New Orleans to rebuild a home damaged by Hurricane Katrina. Volunteers from NAHB’s 50+ Housing Council will participate in a two-day community service project May 17-18 to help rebuild the home of displaced owners Hazel Tate, age 87, and Hilda Levy, age 67. On May 18, the three groups will host a media event featuring your favorite reverse mortgage spokesman Robert Wagner, spokesperson for the Senior Lending Network, to meet the homeowners and provide guided tours of the home and show its progress to date.

Since the overall goal of Senior Independent Living Month is to promote social responsibility, ethical treatment of seniors, and discuss the positive benefits of reverse mortgages, the Senior Lending Network is offering a FREE training session for RMD readers. The session will cover tips on how to generate positive press in the media and help grow your business. Below are just a few of the things that will be covered:

How to issue a press release to the wires
Tips for reaching out to local media, identifying prospective media contacts
Tips for creating community related campaigns in your area for seniors

Join us Thursday, May 22, 2008 at 2:00 PM (EST), space is limited so Sign Up Now!
In addition to the Free training session to RMD readers, the company is offering promotional literature about Senior Independent Living Month for its originator partners on their website.
World Alliance Financial Declares Senior Independent Living Month (Yahoo)

Mortgage Market Review

Provided to you Exclusively by President of The OCD Group Inc. Ernest Tepman

Last Week in Review
"TALENT WITHOUT DISCIPLINE IS LIKE AN OCTOPUS ON ROLLER SKATES. THERE'S PLENTY OF MOVEMENT, BUT YOU NEVER KNOW IF IT'S GOING TO BE FORWARD, BACKWARD, OR SIDEWAYS." H Jackson Brown Jr. And just like that strange visual of an octopus on skates, so goes the volatile Bond market in recent days - and last week, Bonds and home loan rates skated around, but ultimately closed out the week very close to where they had begun.

Bonds and home loan rates ended the week on a sour note, but had spent the early part of the week moving sideways and slightly higher on a blend of mixed economic news and action in the Stock market. Grim news arrived from insurance giant American International Group (AIG), who reported an enormous first-quarter loss of $7.81 Billion or $3.09 a share, compared with earnings of $4.13 Billion just a year ago. The important part of this loss is due to write-downs on Mortgage Bonds, which tells us that the credit crisis is not yet entirely behind us. On these negative headlines, Stocks moved lower and money flowed over into Bonds, helping home loan rates improve.

By Thursday, Bonds were looking good and holding their ground above several floors of technical support, as the weekly Initial Jobless Claims numbers were reported at 365,000, slightly below expectations of 375,000. The more closely watched four-week average of Claims edged higher to 367,500. This not-so-hot read on the labor market helped Bonds and home loan rates continue to improve.

But then on Friday, Bonds gave back some gains on news of oil hitting $126 per barrel - and the inflationary effects of high oil prices is bad news for both Stocks and Bonds. Oil prices are reaching exceptionally high levels, and may get higher still. Read on for where oil prices are forecast to go in the future - and what it means for home loan rates.

AND IT'S NOT JUST FILLING UP THE TANK WHERE YOU'RE SEEING PRICE INCREASES...IT'S WHEN FILLING UP YOUR BELLY AS WELL! THAT'S RIGHT, FOOD AND DRINK PRICES ARE ON THE RISE IN A BIG WAY. CHECK OUT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR SOME MONEY-SAVING TIPS!

Forecast for the Week
After last week's thin economic calendar, where Stock market action and technical factors had a big impact on Bonds and home loan rates, this coming week brings a much juicier economic report agenda.

Retail Sales for April will be reported on Tuesday, followed by Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI). This widely watched measure of consumer inflation will take special significance, now that the Fed has signaled their current rate cutting cycle may be at an end. On Thursday comes a read on the new construction housing market, with Housing Starts and Building Permits. We will have to see if these reports can keep Bonds above their 50- and 100-Day Moving Averages...as seen in the chart below. If the reports are economically weak or negative, Bond prices and home loan rates should hold their ground, and perhaps even find some improvement.

Remember when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower...and vice versa. And right now, there's an important story breaking that will be very important to stay tuned in to. Last Friday, oil prices reached a lofty $126 a barrel, and Goldman Sachs is forecasting that black gold could rise even higher, perhaps as high as $150 - $200 a barrel in the next twelve months. If they are right, the inflationary effects of high oil prices could pressure Bond prices to move lower, causing home loan rates to move higher. This will be a story to watch carefully in the days and months ahead.

The Mortgage Market View...
RISING PRICES NOT JUST AT THE GAS PUMP...
If you've noticed your grocery bill getting bigger lately, you're not alone - and it's likely not because you're eating more. According to Rising Food Prices: Policy Options and World Bank Response, global wheat prices have increased a whopping 181% over the past three years - and overall, food prices have increased by 83%!

Concerned? You're not alone. A recent poll showed that 73% of consumers cite higher grocery bills as a concern; with nearly half saying food inflation has caused a hardship for their households. In fact, food prices ranked just below record-high gasoline prices on the list of things people are worried about.

According to Gregory Karp, author of Living Rich by Spending Smart, here are three simple ways you can save when it comes to food and drink prices:
Time your grocery shopping. With the exception of milk, eggs, and bread, most grocery store products are put on sale at least once every 12 weeks, as Karp notes, often for "20%-30% their usual price." So instead of buying what you need every week or two, stock up on non-perishables when they go on sale. It may take a little planning ahead on your part, but the annual savings is substantial. As Karp writes, "The average American family of four spends about $8,500 on groceries each year. Trimming that bill by 20% saves $1,700."

Make eating out a special treat. Enjoying a nice meal out is always a fun thing to do, so let it be just that, a fun thing to do rather than a solution for being too tired or too rushed to cook. When you do have the time and energy to cook, make two or three times the amount and freeze the extras. Then, when you're rushed, a home-cooked (and probably healthier) meal will be waiting in your freezer, and will likely take less time to reheat than a night out or take-out delivery. And you will save more than time: According to Karp, "A restaurant meal for two costs $30 even at inexpensive chain restaurants. Home-cooked meals typically cost half as much, if not less. Convert two restaurant trips into two frozen homemade dinners each month, and you will save $360 per year."

Don't buy bottled water. Believe it or not, recent tests have shown that bottled water and tap water are pretty equal when it comes to safety and taste. For example, ABC News tested New York City tap water and bottled water for bacteria and found no difference in purity. Plus, there are environmental benefits of using less plastic. Karp estimates that people who drink one $6 case of bottled water each week can save $311 per year if they stop buying bottled water. He notes that "tap water costs five cents per gallon, or less than two cents per equivalent case - about $1 for the year."

Hey, if you eat...rising food prices impact you. Use the above tips and suggestions to help minimize your concerns about rising food prices, and stay healthy and smart.

The Week's Economic Indicator Calendar
Remember, as a general rule, weaker than expected economic data is good for rates, while positive data causes rates to rise.

Ernest Tepman
President
The OCD Group Inc.
Los Angeles: 800-963-4623
San Diego: 877-863-4623
E-Mail: marketupdate@theocdgroup.com

The Housing Crisis Is Over

From The Wall Street Journal
By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUX May 6, 2008; Page A23

The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.

How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.

Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.

Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what's going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.

The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much.

Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased (as opposed to speculators) stopped buying. This caused the bubble to burst.

Since then, house prices have fallen 10%-15%, while incomes have kept growing (albeit more slowly recently) and mortgage rates have come down 70 basis points from their highs. As a result, it now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the first-time home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s. Numerous households that had been priced out of the market can now afford to get in.

The next question is: Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do.

In the past five major housing market corrections (and there were some big ones, such as in the early 1980s when home sales also fell by 50%-60% and prices fell 12%-15% in real terms), every time home sales bottomed, the pace of house-price declines halved within one or two months.

The explanation is that by the time home sales stop declining, inventories of unsold homes have usually already started falling in absolute terms and begin to peak out in "months of supply" terms. That's the case right now: New home inventories peaked at 598,000 homes in July 2006, and stand at 482,000 homes as of the end of March. This inventory is equivalent to 11 months of supply, a 25-year high - but it is similar to 1974, 1982 and 1991 levels, which saw a subsequent slowing in home-price declines within the next six months.

Inventories are declining because construction activity has been falling for such a long time that home completions are now just about undershooting new home sales. In a few months, completions of new homes for sale could be undershooting new home sales by 50,000-100,000 annually.

Inventories will drop even faster to 400,000 - or seven months of supply - by the end of 2008. This shift in inventories will have a significant impact on prices, although house prices won't stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009. A five-month supply has historically signaled tightness in the housing market.

Many pundits claim that house prices need to fall another 30% to bring them back in line with where they've been historically. This is usually based on an analysis of house prices adjusted for inflation: Real house prices are 30% above their 40-year, inflation-adjusted average, so they must fall 30%. This simplistic analysis is appealing on the surface, but is flawed for a variety of reasons.

Most importantly, it neglects the fact that a great majority of Americans buy their houses with mortgages. And if one buys a house with a mortgage, the most important factor in deciding what to pay for the house is how much of one's income is required to be able to make the mortgage payments on the house. Today the rate on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage is 5.7%. Back in 1981, the rate hit 18.5%. Comparing today's house prices to the 1970s or 1980s, when mortgage rates were stratospheric, is misguided and misleading.

This is all good news for the broader economy. The housing bust has been subtracting a full percentage point from GDP for almost two years now, which is very large for a sector that represents less than 5% of economic activity.

When the rate of house-price declines halves, there will be a wholesale shift in markets' perceptions. All of a sudden, the expected value of the collateral (i.e. houses) for much of the lending that went on for the past decade will change. Right now, when valuing the collateral, market participants including banks are extrapolating the current pace of house price declines for another two to three years; this has a significant impact on the amount of delinquencies, foreclosures and credit losses that lenders are expected to face.

More home sales and smaller price declines means fewer homeowners will be underwater on their mortgages. They will thus have less incentive to walk away and opt for foreclosure.
A milder house-price decline scenario could lead to increases in the market value of a lot of the securitized mortgages that have been responsible for $300 billion of write-downs in the past year. Even if write-backs do not occur, stabilizing collateral values will have a huge impact on the markets' perception of risk related to housing, the financial system, and the economy.

We are of course experiencing a serious housing bust, with serious economic consequences that are still unfolding. The odds are that the reverberations will lead to subtrend growth for a couple of years. Nonetheless, housing led us into this credit crisis and this recession. It is likely to lead us out. And that process is underway, right now.

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