Best Real Estate News

Monday, June 30, 2008

U.S. economy: Consumer confidence, house prices slide

Thursday, June 26, 2008
Brought to you by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®


The Conference Board reported that its confidence index fell from 57.2 in May to 50.4 in June thanks to the housing downturn, higher unemployment and the rising cost of food and fuel. The last time the index was this low was in February 1992, when the economy was beginning to recover from the 1990-91 economic downturn.

The S&P/Case-Shiller index fell by 15.3 percent in April from the previous April, continuing March's 14.4 percent year-over-year decline. However, eight of the 20 cities included in the index experienced month-over-month increases in prices. That shows cities "are beginning to sort themselves into the bad and not-so-bad," said economics professor and index co-founder Karl Case. "It's not like the whole market is collapsing."

California cities included in the index continued to experience price declines: In Los Angeles, the index fell 2.2 percent from March to April and 32.1 percent year over year. San Diego was down 2.6 percent for the month and 22.4 percent compared with April 2007, and San Francisco declined 2.2 percent in April and was 22.1 percent below last April's index.
To read the full story, please click here:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aX6aDvhPpltY&refer=home

U.S. home slump harder to reverse than usual - Harvard
  • Homebuyers remain on the sidelines as they face the highest mortgage rates in nine months and stricter lending criteria. The Federal Reserve?s efforts to keep interest rates low with the hope of stimulating buyer activity has largely fallen on deaf ears as potential homebuyers watch prices continue to slide in many areas of the nation courtesy of a large inventory of foreclosed properties for sale.
  • Director Nicolas Retsinas observed that housing markets "historically recover only after the economy has entered a recession and a combination of falling mortgage interest rates and house prices have improved housing affordability. It will take longer to rebound given the unusually high levels of foreclosures and constrained credit markets. The slump in housing markets has not yet run its full course."
  • The report concludes: "...if the economy slips into a recession or job losses keep racking up, household growth and homeownership demand could fall even more."

To read the full story, please click here:
http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSN2347133320080623?sp=true

California unemployment hits 6.8%
  • California's unemployment rate trails four other states: Michigan, Rhode Island, Alaska and Mississippi. Some 1.26 million Californians were unemployed in May, up 115,000 from April and 300,000 higher than in May 2007. The state posted a net loss of 10,900 jobs in May, primarily in construction. However, there were net gains in jobs in education and health services, natural resources and mining, information, leisure, and hospitality.
  • The state's employment situation could worsen later this year under the weight of state and local government budget cuts and a threatened actor's strike.
  • Economists say an employment recovery may be as long as a year off. That's when the construction sector is expected to benefit from billions of dollars in public infrastructure projects approved by California voters.

To read the full story, please click here:
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-fi-caljobs21-2008jun21,0,5760427.story

Fannie, Freddie Fail to Relieve Housing by Shunning Jumbo Loans
  • Jumbo loans of more than $417,000 accounted for about one-third of the mortgage market last year and represented a fifth of all mortgage applications in May, sources say. Since March, however, Fannie Mae has packaged only $24 million in jumbo loans into securities while Freddie Mac has packaged about $220 million. Meanwhile, the two companies invested more than $32.4 billion to buy their own securities, according to regulatory filings.
  • The NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® (NAR) had projected the two companies would buy $150 billion in jumbo loans this year. UBS AG now predicts that total may be less than $74 billion. Freddie Mac has said it would buy between $10 billion and $15 billion in jumbo loans this year.
  • The two companies own or guarantee almost half of the $12 trillion in U.S. residential mortgage debt. They experienced record losses totaling $11.8 billion over the last three quarters as mortgage defaults climbed to 30-year highs.

To read the full story, please click here:http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a57eFJtEHSHI&refer=us

New report had optimistic prospects

Sunday, June 29, 2008 @ 2:23:00 PM
By Alexis McGee, Co-Founder and President of ForeclosureS.com is both architect and teacher of their exclusive investor learning programs and author of The ForeclosureS.com Guide books (Wiley 2007, 2008).
FREE! Don't Miss Out -
New Foreclosure Investor Webinar & Conference Call - "Make Honest and Ethical Profits Now!" LIVE Wednesday, June 18th, 2008, 6pm Pacific (9pm Eastern). Regularly $19 -- NOW FREE! Hurry Space is LIMITED! MORE HERE.

A new report from Harvard just came out "The State of the Nations Housing 2008" that I found very interesting. Let me share the highlights with you here. Starting with the good news -- drastic production cuts and deep price discounts in 2005-2007 helped shrink the inventory of unsold new homes from a mid-2006 peak of more than 570,000 to less than 500,000 in early 2008. But the number of homes entering foreclosure nearly doubled to 1.3 million last year, and vacant homes for sale rose 46 percent over two years, to 2.12 million.

This report is more optimistic about medium- to long-term prospects. It estimates that unless there's a serious, prolonged economic decline or a marked cutback in immigration, the nation will gain 14.4 million new households between 2010 and 2020, compared with 12.6 million between 1995 and 2005.

"Until the number of vacant for-sale units on the market falls enough to bring vacancy rates back down, house prices will remain under pressure," the report says. "Working off the oversupply will require some combination of the following: housing starts fall even further; prices decline enough to bring out new bargain-seeking buyers; interest rates drop enough to improve affordability; job growth improves; consumer confidence returns; and mortgage credit again becomes more widely available."

"At some point demand will bounce back," Retsinas said in a press release announcing the release of the report. "Historically, housing markets recover only after the economy has entered a recession and a combination of falling mortgage interest rates and house prices have improved housing affordability."

If the economy slips into a severe recession, the prolonged contraction could drive down the sustainable level of housing demand by slowing the loss of older units, forcing more households to double up, and reducing sales of second homes, the report said. But in the case of a mild downturn, which most economists expect, the fundamentals of demand are likely to drive a strong rebound in housing once prices bottom out and the economy begins to recover.

The boom-bust housing cycle has been reflected in the home-ownership rate. From 1994 to 2004, the home-ownership rate surged by five percentage points, peaking at 69 percent. Since then, home-ownership rates have fallen back for most groups, including a nearly two-point drop among black households and a 1.4-point drop among young households. The number of renter households increased by more than 2 million from 2004 to 2007, lowering the national home-ownership rate to 68.1 percent.


Once the oversupply of housing is worked off and home prices start to recover, the use of automated underwriting tools, a return to more traditional mortgage products, and the strength of underlying demand should put the number of homeowners back on the rise, the report said.

Although the short-term prospects for a recovery remain uncertain, in the long run the downturn is unlikely to slow down the creation of new households. The report projected that minority household growth among 35- to 64-year-olds should remain strong in 2010-2020, while the number of white middle-aged households will begin to decline after 2010 as baby boomers reach retirement age. People living alone are expected to account for 36 percent of household growth between 2010 and 2020, and 75 percent of the 5.3 million projected increase in single-person households will be among those 65 and older.


This is all really very helpful information -- if you know how to use it to buy low and sell for profits in today market. That is why I spend time on this and more economic and housing data every month in my FREE Webinar and Conference Call for new foreclosure buyers "Make Honest and Ethical Foreclosure Profits NOW" on July 16th at 6pm Pacific. Register Early as we always fill up quickly! MORE HERE.

Saturday, June 28, 2008

The Housing Crisis Is Over

By CYRIL MOULLE-BERTEAUXMay 6, 2008; The Wall Street Journal Page A23

The dire headlines coming fast and furious in the financial and popular press suggest that the housing crisis is intensifying. Yet it is very likely that April 2008 will mark the bottom of the U.S. housing market. Yes, the housing market is bottoming right now.

How can this be? For starters, a bottom does not mean that prices are about to return to the heady days of 2005. That probably won't happen for another 15 years. It just means that the trend is no longer getting worse, which is the critical factor.

Most people forget that the current housing bust is nearly three years old. Home sales peaked in July 2005. New home sales are down a staggering 63% from peak levels of 1.4 million. Housing starts have fallen more than 50% and, adjusted for population growth, are back to the trough levels of 1982.

Furthermore, residential construction is close to 15-year lows at 3.8% of GDP; by the fourth quarter of this year, it will probably hit the lowest level ever. So what's going to stop the housing decline? Very simply, the same thing that caused the bust: affordability.

The boom made housing unaffordable for many American families, especially first-time home buyers. During the 1990s and early 2000s, it took 19% of average monthly income to service a conforming mortgage on the average home purchased. By 2005 and 2006, it was absorbing 25% of monthly income. For first time buyers, it went from 29% of income to 37%. That just proved to be too much. Read Full Story

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Reverse Mortgages and Their Tax Breaks for Seniors

Many seniors find themselves in the same boat; they have an expensive home that has increased in value substantially, but they are struggling when it comes to day-to-day cash flow. Yet, they that if the sell the home, they will have to turn a significant amount of their profits over to the tax man. A regular home equity loan, or second mortgage, will only help the cash flow problem temporarily; after the loan amount is spent, then they will be faced with two mortgage payments and even less cash in the bank. If this sounds like your circumstances, then you should know there is another option out there that can help you pay for your retirement while avoiding costly taxes. A reverse mortgage has saved many seniors from retirement financial ruin.

First, let's look at what a reverse mortgage is. Read Full Story


Tuesday, June 24, 2008

The Truth about Making Money in Today's Real Estate Market

We would like to offer a complimentary real estate seminar (a $99 value) as a benefit to the employees at your company.

We would like to share our experience and knowledge to teach people how to make educated decisions about buying, selling and investing in today's real estate market.

There is no obligation to buy anything. We are not selling products or services. Our mission is to educate and provide guidance with honesty and integrity for people who may be overwhelmed, doubtful or indecisive due to misleading messages in the media about local real estate. For example, did you know there are areas in Los Angeles county that have appreciated over the last year?

As realtors and members of the California Association of Realtors (CAR) and National Association of Realtors (NAR) we will discuss the facts not the hype. Topics will include:

• Market Statistics
• Last Market Crash
• Best Buying Opportunity in 35 years
• Where are the Deals?
• Why Should You Buy in Today's Market?
• Why Should You Sell in Today's Market?
• What You Should Know Before Buying?
• Incentives, Discounts, Promotions
• Ideas to Get a Down Payment
• How Does the Process Work?

Bring this FREE seminar as a benefit to the employees at your company.
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Igor Korosec
Best Hollywood Homes Team & Promenade Realtors
PH 310-499-1305
http://www.BestHollywoodHomes.com
Email Igor Korosec

Gayle Barnes
Keller Williams Realty Sunset

Monday, June 23, 2008

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Call me at 310-499-1305 if you have any questions & I will give you an honest answer based on my experience dealing with this. Several of my real estate clients got their items removed and are pre-approved to make a home purchase.

Igor Korosec
Real Estate Consultant & Foreclosure Therapist


When I earn your confidence & trust, you will enthusiastically send your friends, family and acquaintances my way – just because you truly believe they will benefit from what I have to offer.

Commercial Market Follows Residential Footsteps

Posted by Editor View profile

There is a rise in commercial real estate being defaulted on and returned to lenders just as we have seen in the residential markets. The defaults are caused by property values falling below the amount owed on the property. See article » http://www.smartbrief.com

2 charged on Wall Street in mortgage meltdown

By TOM HAYS, Associated Press Writer Thu Jun 19, 7:13 PM ET
Yahoo News

NEW YORK - Two former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers were hauled into jail Thursday and charged with lying to investors about the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, perhaps signaling the start of a wave of prosecutions arising from the housing meltdown.

Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin were accused of encouraging investors to stay in their hedge funds, heavily exposed to subprime mortgages, even as they knew the credit market was in serious trouble.

They were indicted on conspiracy and fraud counts, the first criminal charges to hit Wall Street in the housing market meltdown.

The eventual implosion of their two hedge funds cost investors $1.8 billion and started the domino effect that led the demise of Bear Stearns itself, which barely avoided bankruptcy in a rescue buyout by JP Morgan Chase & Co. Click Here to Read Full Story

FREE RE-USABLE GROCERY BAGS

Data released by the United States Environmental Protection Agency shows that somewhere between 500 billion and a trillion plastic bags are consumed worldwide each year. National Geographic News September 2, 2003

Less than 1% of bags are recycled. It cost more to recycle a bag than to produce a new one.

“There's harsh economics behind bag recycling: It costs $4,000 to process and recycle 1 ton of plastic bags, which can then be sold on the commodities market for $32” - Jared Blumenfeld (Director of San Francisco's Department of the Environment

Where Do They Go? Click on this
link to see the answer

THE MORTGAGE MARKET GUIDE

Last Week in Review


“VERY NICE. IT’S A LITTLE GREASY…BUT VERY NICE. CRUMBLE SOME CRACKERS INTO IT SHELL, THAT WILL HELP TO ABSORB THE GREASE…” Peter Falk’s line from the 1979 classic movie “The In-Laws” is good advice about soup…but doesn’t help us much when it comes to absorbing the high price of oil, a greasy topic that continues to permeate financial headlines.


And last week was no exception, with oil prices continuing to march ever higher, despite an announcement early last week by OPEC member Saudi Arabia that they will increase oil production in the near future. They are concerned that the high price of oil will lead to lower demand and a turn toward alternative energy sources. And Friday’s news didn’t help, with a strike at a Chevron plant in war-torn Nigeria, Africa’s largest oil producing nation. Additionally, Israel conducted a military operation for preparedness in case of a potential strike against Iran’s nuclear plants – which all served to push oil prices higher still. High oil prices are inflationary – so if the march higher in oil prices continues, both the Stock and Bond markets will suffer…and even crumbled crackers won’t help sop up the mess.

But Bonds did manage to find some improvement last week, helping home loan rates get better by about .125%. Negative economic news, including soft housing numbers, weakness from the manufacturing sector and more write-downs announced by financial giant Citigroup all played a hand – causing money to flow out of Stocks and over into Bonds, which helped prices improve.
WANT TO HELP YOUR CAR’S MAINTENANCE BUDGET IMPROVE? YOU MIGHT BE SURPRISED TO LEARN HOW MUCH YOU CAN SAVE…READ THIS WEEK’S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW!

Forecast for the Week

The coming week is chock full of economic reports that will likely have a big influence on the financial markets. We start off on Tuesday with a report on Consumer Confidence, and also the beginning of Fed meetings which will culminate in a Rate Decision and Policy Statement on Wednesday afternoon at 2:15pm ET. It is widely believed that the Fed will keep the Fed Funds Rate at 2%...but what will be most interesting is the wording of their carefully crafted Policy Statement. If it gives hints of their intent to hike rates in the near future to help fight inflation, it could actually be good news for Bonds and home loan rates.


A look at sales numbers in the new and existing housing markets will come Wednesday and Thursday, and Friday will wrap up the week with a bang as the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, the Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) data will be released. Since this will be following the Fed’s announcement on Wednesday – will the Fed look smart if they’ve held rates steady, or perhaps come under criticism if the inflation numbers are super-heated? Could be a greasy few days for the Fed, so stay tuned.

Remember that when Bond pricing moves higher, home loan rates move lower – and then take a look at the chart below. You can see how in recent days, Bonds have moved higher, but are now battling an overhead “ceiling” of technical resistance. If Bonds and home loan rates are to improve in the near future, it will take some very Bond-friendly news to help crash through the ceiling that has stopped progress in its tracks for the time being.

The Mortgage Market View...

TIME FOR A CHANGE…OR NOT?
The rising cost of crude oil has everyone talking about gas prices at the pump… but what about the actual oil in your engine? Are you spending too much on oil by changing it too often?
Most of us probably think a car’s oil needs to be changed every 3,000 miles. But that’s an old mechanics tale these days. Did you know that many car manuals now actually recommend changing the oil every 5,000, 7,500 or even 10,000 miles? That means you may be changing your oil twice or even three times as often as you need to! In fact, a recent study in California indicated that 73 percent of Californians change their oil more frequently than recommended by the manufacturers.


So how often should you change your oil?

The fact is, oil changes should be determined by what, how, and where you drive. If you have a newer car with little or no engine wear, you can probably go 7,500 miles between oil changes. And even if you have a slightly older car, but drive under ideal conditions such as predominantly highway, you can go a similar distance before changing.

Of course, many of us actually don’t drive under “ideal” conditions…if you make many short trips, endure lots of stop-and-go traffic, drive on gravel or dusty roads – then you might need to change your oil more frequently. So how do you know – and take advantage of saving money by only changing oil when it’s really needed?

Technology to the rescue

There are a few ways you can actually eliminate the guesswork. If you have a newer car, it may have a built-in sensor that estimates oil life based on engine running time, miles driven, outside temperature, coolant temperature and other operating conditions. When the indicator light comes on, it’s time to change the oil. It’s that simple.

Another idea is to purchase an oil monitoring sensor, such as the IntelliStick. These sensors are used in place of your car’s original dipstick and provide you with real-time, accurate information about the true condition of your oil. Better still, these sensors often have a transponder built into them so you can quickly and easily check the condition of your oil at any time using a cell phone, PDA or computer with Bluetooth connectivity…now that’s really going high tech.

Bottom line – dollars spent on oil changes add up fast. Especially with the increasing price of oil, it pays to be smart, check the manufacturer’s recommendations…and not let too-frequent oil changes cost you!

Ernest Tepman

President
The OCD Group Inc.
Los Angeles: 800-963-4623
San Diego: 877-863-4623
E-Mail: marketupdate@theocdgroup.com





FHA LOANS & DOWNPAYMENT ASSISTANCE

As you are aware, it has become very difficult to close loans today due to recent changes in the Conventional and Sub-Prime markets. Stated Income is gone, minimum credit scores have been raised and the 5% Declining Market has killed pretty much every 100% program.

Now the Mortgage Insurance Companies are pulling back! They want even higher minimum scores, lower LTV’s, and will soon be charging higher premiums.

FHA on the other hand is trying to help. They have increased the maximum loan amount to as high as $729,750! They are considering lowering Mortgage Insurance rates, and talking about lower down payment requirements from 3% down to zero!!

Currently, FHA is the only program that does not have a minimum credit score requirement, they allow for non-occupying co-borrowers, and does not require the buyer to have any money of his own invested into the property.

Additionally, you can use maximum FHA financing on SFR’s, Condo’s, PUD’s (Town Homes), Units, and Manufactured Homes. And there are no “Declining Market” reductions at all!!

FHA still allows for Down Payment Assistance Programs such as Nehemiah, HART, Ameridream, Access, Gold, and others. There are programs available that will allow the seller to contribute up to 12% for Down Payment and Closing Costs!!

Refinancing? How about 95% LTV on Cash Out, 97% on Rate and Term, and for recently listed properties you only need the home to be off the market for 1 day. And if needed, you can even add co-borrowers to help with qualifying!!

FHA may soon be the only affordable loan program above 90%!!!!!

Commissions on FHA loans are higher than any other loan program! As a Loan Officer with us you share in the Origination Fee, Rebate/Premium Pricing, and SRP (Service Release Premium). You should make up to 2% or more on your transactions!!!

We have been involved with FHA financing for over 15 years, we have the knowledge and experience to help you and your clients. Please call or email us with your questions, we look forward to hearing from you.

Thank you,

Kevin McRae
1(888) 655-5000
Kevin@homefinderscenter.com

Friday, June 6, 2008

Short sale & consequences

Investors in second or multiple homes stand to be among the biggest losers from the housing downturn. That’s because proposed mortgage bailout programs don’t address second homes and investment properties. Many owners of multiple properties don’t realize that investments they thought would help them build long-term wealth may in fact leave them in bankruptcy and facing a sizeable tax debt.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

  • Homeowners who borrowed against the value of their second home, or who financed the purchase of their second home and subsequent homes by pledging their primary home or other properties as security, may be liable for taxes on the difference in value should they sell any of their properties for a price less than the value owed on the mortgage.
  • Under the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act, a homeowner doesn’t have to pay taxes on forgiven debt if the collateral behind the mortgage is owner-occupied. That provision doesn’t apply to a growing number of homeowners renting out their second home or investment property. Of some 7.5 million vacation homes, only about 10 percent are considered owner-occupied, according to the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION of REALTORS® (NAR). Many of these homeowners borrowed against the ever-increasing (or so it seemed) value of these properties to finance improvements or to buy other properties.
  • There may be a way out for some, one bankruptcy lawyer counsels: Get a lender to agree that foreclosure “fully satisfies all obligations under the loan.” That might protect the seller from having to pay taxes on the forgiven debt – although one attorney said, “I sure don’t want to be the one litigating it” in court.


To read the full story, please click here:http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/30/business/30tax.html?th&emc=th

To get your short sale handled by professional team of real estate consultants and foreclosure therapists call Best Hollywood Homes Team at 310-499-1305. We provide free & no obligation consultation based on your specific situation.

Tuesday, June 3, 2008

Property Tax SAVINGS

GOOD NEWS…. For anyone that purchased property between July 1, 2004 and June 30, 2007. Los Angeles County will be sending a letter to homeowners a value reduction for their properties and taxes….

Los Angeles County Assessor Rick Auerbach today announced completion of a decline in value review of homes in Los Angeles County. Auerbach said that due to the declining real estate market, it was his responsibility to review values to make sure homes are properly assessed.
“We looked at homes and condominiums that were purchased between July 1, 2004 and June 30, 2007, based on our analysis of market trends in Los Angeles County,” Auerbach said. “The review included 318,000 homes and condos. Our analysis will result in lower assessments on 128,000 homes and condos and will be reflected on the tax bills to be issued in October.”
The average reduction in assessed value is about $73,000, he added, amounting to an average property tax savings of approximately $750.

“In addition, this review will eliminate the need for many taxpayers to go through the formal appeal process,” Auerbach said. The 128,000 homeowners who will be receiving a value reduction will be notified in writing by June 30 of this year. If they disagree with the amount of the reduction they should contact the nearest Assessor’s District Office and discuss the results. If owners still disagree with the value, they may file an appeal with the county’s Assessment Appeals Board. The deadline for filing an assessment appeal is November 30.

Homeowners who purchased their properties outside of the time period for the review (July 1, 2004 to June 30, 2007) and believe that their property is assessed above its actual value as of January 1, 2008, should file the simple, one-page Decline-in-Value application. The form can be downloaded from the Assessor’s Website at http://assessor.lacounty.gov or an application can be requested by calling 888-807-2111.


have a WONDERFUL day

Louise Oshiro
Cal Counties Title Nation
New Email: louise@louise4title.com
(818) 439-7008
(310) 490-0003

Weekly Mortgage Market Update from The OCD Group

For the week of Jun 02, 2008 --- Vol. 6, Issue 23


Last Week in Review


"INFLATION IS AS VIOLENT AS A MUGGER, AS FRIGHTENING AS AN ARMED ROBBER, AND AS DEADLY AS A HIT MAN." ~ Ronald Reagan. And although you might not describe the effects of inflation in such strong terms yourself...rest assured that the effects of inflation have crept into your home, your gas tank and your wallet. And inflation is also the nemesis of Bonds and therefore home loan rates, because just like inflation erodes the value of the dollars you spend, inflation erodes the value of the fixed return a Bond provides. And last week, Bond pricing worsened on news of inflation, causing home loan rates to move higher by about .25% across the board and reaching the highest levels seen in weeks.

The week was shortened by the Memorial Day holiday, but right out of the gates, inflation concerns abounded. The Consumer Confidence Report indicated that consumer inflation expectations are at an all-time high...meaning that consumers are seeing inflation as a real threat to their own financial situation. Rising energy costs and worldwide inflation fears continued to pummel Bonds lower - in fact, so low that they moved below a tough technical floor of support at the 200-Day Moving Average. This is important because Bonds have made a decisive cross over the 200-day Moving Average on only three separate occasions within the past three years. This means that barring a timely reversal, we are likely seeing a shift in the market towards higher home loan rates.

Friday brought a little good news on inflation, as the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Index showed that inflation does remain within the Fed's comfort zone. While Bonds and home loan rates improved somewhat on the news, the trend for the week was definitely worse overall, as the big picture on inflation cost Bonds and home loan rates some hard earned ground.
LOOKING FORWARD TO YOUR STIMULUS CHECK...AND WISHING THE SIZE OF IT COULD BE "INFLATED?" RETAILERS HAVE COOKED UP SOME INTERESTING SPECIALS TO DO JUST THAT, SHOULD YOU DECIDE TO SPEND YOUR CHECK ON THEIR GOODS OR SERVICES. TAKE A LOOK AT THIS WEEK'S MORTGAGE MARKET VIEW FOR SOME EXAMPLES OF WHAT CREATIVE RETAILERS HAVE IN STORE FOR YOU.

Forecast for the Week


This coming week, one economic report in particular bears inflated significance...Friday's release of the infamous monthly Jobs Report. It will reveal, among many other things, the number of jobs lost or gained during the month of May. Last month's Jobs Report indicated that 20,000 jobs were lost in April, and while this was better than the expected job losses of 75,000, it is possible that the reported number understated the actual number of jobs lost, due to how the Department of Labor averages their count. And part of each month's report is "revisions" to the several prior months' numbers...which this could be quite a wild card for Bonds and home loan rates.

Last month's Jobs Report, which was indeed more positive than expected, caused Bonds to fall a whopping 134bp in a matter of minutes, and home loan rates worsened quickly. Why? Because even though the news wasn't great, it sure was better than anticipated...and this caused money to flow out of Bonds, and into Stocks...which caused Bond prices and home loan rates to worsen. This week's Jobs Report could sure be another mover, and if the report or revisions indicate positive news on the jobs front, home loan rates will likely worsen in response.

Remember when Bond prices move higher, home loan rates move lower...and vice versa. And as you can see in the chart below, Bonds moved lower for most of the week, and actually closed below an important technical level at the 200-day Moving Average. This is a very important level, as it can act as either a very strong floor of support helping Bond prices not to fall below it...or as an equally strong ceiling of resistance, preventing Bonds and home loan rates from improving above it. And with Bonds currently having fallen beneath it, I'll be watching closely this week to see if Bonds have indeed fallen and can't get up...or if they can break above that tough level later this week and help home loan rates improve.

The Mortgage Market View...


Retailers Looking For Some "Stimulus"...
According to a recent poll on how consumers intend to spend their stimulus checks, 19% of consumers plan on using their economic stimulus check for a special purchase, and 23% plan to use their check for everyday expenses. The rest...well, 36% say they will pay down debt and 22% say they will put it into savings. But will the check burn a hole through their pockets?
Maybe so, particularly with the "stimulus check" specials that many retailers have come up with, offering bonuses and incentives for people who spend their "stimulus" dollars with them. Here are some examples, in case you want to take advantage of any offers:

Sears. If you use your stimulus check to purchase a gift card, you receive an additional gift card worth 10% of your check's value. This offer is also good at Kmart and Lands' End.

Kroger. Between now and July 31, 2008, you can exchange your tax refund or economic stimulus check for a Kroger gift card with an extra $30.00 (for $300.00 checks), $60.00 (for $600.00 checks) or $120.00 (for $1,200.00 checks) added to it. The program is available throughout Kroger stores nationwide - including Kroger, Baker's, City Market, Dillons, Fred Meyer, Fry's, Gerbes, Hilander, Jay C, King Soopers, Owen's, Pay Less, Ralphs, Smith's and QFC stores.

Home Depot. To encourage consumers to invest their stimulus check in their homes through energy efficient products and services, the retailer is offering special values on energy-efficient products such as light bulbs and home appliances through the summer.

Radio Shack. The retailer will cash your check and give you 10% off on any purchase above $50, and then give you the difference as a prepaid MasterCard that can be used anywhere that takes MasterCard.

Domino's Pizza. Although you don't need to use your stimulus check for purchase, Domino's is getting into the spirit of economic stimulus, offering a "recession-busting" special of three pizzas for $12.00. According to the company's press release, "While you're feeding the economy with your special refund check, let it feed you back."

These are just some of the promotions that retailers are currently offering, and more deals are likely on the way. If there's something you want to use part of your stimulus check for, do your homework and take advantage of the specials that are out there. And if you do intend to pay down debt with the check, feel free to give me a call to discuss which debt would make most sense to reduce!


Ernest Tepman
President
The OCD Group Inc.
Los Angeles: 800-963-4623
San Diego: 877-863-4623
E-Mail: marketupdate@theocdgroup.com

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